Astrophel Solutions

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1LF9MAsj4yxqJdFdhy_ASPA0LMgBtEsHpYQ9YrAOWa7U/edit?usp=sharing

Please see Detailed Project Description

Overview

With the help of technology advancement, EO satellites capture huge amounts of data and imagery which helps humankind to identify specific problems and address them on time. 

The decision-makers can use the satellite collected data once it has been properly analyzed and processed. It is highly important to properly process said data in order for quality decisions to be made. The quality of these decisions are what will enable the stakeholders to enjoy positive, tangible results. Relevant examples of processed satellite data and their results will be presented and reviewed in this project. Additionally, a general concept will be suggested to measure the benefits of EO data. 

Goals

 In this work, the following topics will be discussed: 

• how the satellite data is used in decision making process by examining two different fields;
• how do satellites benefit society;
• how the value of observation can be measured.

Specification

It is important to acknowledge the space research and technological progress which has benefited Earth observation. Recently, new opportunities arose to gather additional information, available to both government and private sectors. The main question is: how to measure the value of Earth observation based on data received by satellites?

Before answering said question, the general picture should be described, i.e. how the process is presented: starting from data collection using satellites, analyzing and processing satellite data and finally the decision making based on said data. 

It is worth discussing one of the interesting scenarios where satellite imagery helped investors pick stocks. In general, aerial images that make comparisons between historical data and examined target areas present an opportunity to make predictions and even investments.

Specifically, in the Walmart case method of object recognition over satellite imagery was used, providing data to help investors apply proper strategies. According to the research, analyzing images from RS metrics from 2011 to 2017 covering 44 major U.S. retailers, including Walmart, Target, Costco, and Whole Foods, the researchers confirmed that year-over-year changes in the number of cars in individual stores’ parking lots was a reliable predictor of quarterly sales— which is a widely used metric for retailers’ performance.

To sum up, measuring the target area and conducting further empirical analysis gave them a huge advantage over their competitors in regards to planning trading strategies and predicting outcomes. This informational advantage yielded a 4% to 5% in the three days around quarterly earnings announcements, which is a significant return over such a short window, as documented in the Walmart case. 

Additionally, we should take into account that real-time satellite data costs tens of thousands of dollars a year at a minimum. In order to estimate the benefit properly, it should be considered whether open-source data would be suitable for the purposes or additional investment in the future scenarios. 

Despite the fact satellite data can be used to further monetary gain, there are precious few things we value as much as human lives. In the time of changing climate and rapid urbanization, the effort necessary to efficiently and effectively mitigate unnecessary human suffering and improve livability increases accordingly. 

Large tracts of lands are covered by ever-expanding cities whose architecture creates a unique topography with unique rules that apply for each city. With regards to climate, this includes turning certain neighbourhoods into pockets of high temperature concentration, an effect also known as the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI). In case of longer periods of extremely high temperatures, the areas affected by the UHI become a health hazard, especially to more sensitive populations (e.g. the old and infirm). Living under such conditions leads to increased instances of cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, and even death, as well as increased energy consumption and infrastructure costs for the city and its residents.

Whether it is the lack of shade from trees or tall buildings, the lack of airflow due to building placement, heat absorbing surfaces or some other factor, the UHI is a growing problem for a world that expects that the majority of its population will be living in cities (over 68% by year 2050 with current estimates).

To mitigate these effects, a number of cities and counties across the US have requested assistance from NASA’s DEVELOP team to help them pinpoint exact locations where such heat pockets occur.

To address extremely high temperatures that occur in Fairfax County, Virginia, the Fairfax County Office of Environmental and Energy Coordination (OEEC) has partnered with NASA’s DEVELOP team to assess and address the extent of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI).

The team utilized the data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), as well as the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) for the years 2013 to 2021.

They concluded that the hottest spots were in densely urbanized areas, with temperatures as much as 47°F above that of undeveloped reference areas. Using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), the team determined that areas with higher tree canopy cover had greater heat mitigation capacity, specifically that a 4.5% increase in canopy cover could result in a 2.4°F reduction in those areas. The use of satellites enabled the teams to identify prime locations for cooling centers and increasing canopy cover.

To combat the problem of high urban heat that regularly exceeds 100.0°F (37.8°C), the City of Tempe, Arizona, collaborated with the Healthy Urban Environments initiative and the NASA DEVELOP team during Fall of 2020.

The team utilized data from the Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), American Community Survey, and LiDAR data. Their plan was to use this collected satellite data to identify areas experiencing the worst heat effects that could then be targeted for heat mitigation and adaptation.

It was concluded that these areas were the Escalante neighborhood, Alegre Community, University Heights, and around Dwight Park. Additionally, according to the team’s shading analysis, the Gilliland and Escalante neighborhood walksheds did not meet the "good" shading threshold set at 30% by the Maricopa Association of Government.

Concept

These, and a number of other, similar projects, would not be possible to do as efficiently without the use of satellites. Similar-looking urban landscapes that now spread across vast tracts of land prevent easy identification of microclimate to untrained human eyes, making looking for the neighborhoods where the UHI is present akin to looking for a needle in a haystack. 

Without satellites, the local governments would have to send experts on foot to manually investigate locations and record temperatures before deciding on a course of action. When modern cities cover hundreds of square kilometers, or are part of larger metropolitan areas, the “on-foot” approach becomes unfeasible, both economically and practically. 

By using satellites, teams can easily identify UHI zones and focus their efforts on preventing further harm from occurring. Using satellites not only saves time invested by expert teams or taxpayer money saved by the city that can now pinpoint areas that need the investments, but it also enables the effects of these new implementations to go into effect faster. This is especially important as said implementation is done to lower the area temperatures to prevent further heat or heat-associated deaths from occurring. Furthermore, the energy consumption by residents on cooling, the highest electricity expenditure over the course of a year (according to U.S. Energy Information Administration), increases during the months of July and August, i.e. peak summer. For example, during those months, there was a consistent, noticeable spike in electricity prices, averaging an increase of 6.7% for residential use and 9.5% for industrial use over the recent years.

In order to better understand the benefits of satellite data in decision making, we have to define how value is measured. According to the VALUABLES Consortium Measuring Explainer, it is impossible to quantify the advantage of Earth information usage because humankind has significantly expanded its reach and benefited based on it. But the aim of this work is to narrow down vast amounts of data gathered and concentrate on specific ways of measuring data in an alternative way, turning it into information that can then be used by scientists or decision makers. 

The core concept is built on the comparison of two alternatives: calculating the worth of conducting research with and without satellite data. It is definitely challenging to give an accurate estimation as it requires enormous work to define all the parameters for specific cases, but approximate assumptions can be made based on documented historical scenarios.

If the Walmart Case is examined from this perspective, it is crucial to highlight the importance of identifying alternative data. Based on the research, it is obvious that access to satellite imagery gives a huge advantage and results in information asymmetry among market participants. For the Walmart scenario the portfolio outcome differences between those investors who were using alternative data (i.e. counting vehicles) and those who weren’t, the quarterly earnings were 3% and 1.6% respectively.

Summary

To conclude, based on the examples discussed, the importance of Earth Observation of data is increasing. It is crucial to decide on proper metrics in order to accurately assess data gathered and design solutions that will produce tangible results.

• Kuwayama,J. Huetteman, J. Mabee, B. (2019, March 5). Value of Science 102: Measuring How Scientific Research Benefits Society Using Economics. https://www.rff.org/publications/explainers/measuring-how-scientific-research-benefits-society-using-economics/ -(2021, September 3rd access date)
• Kuwayama,J. Huetteman, J. Mabee, B. (2019, March 5). Value of Science 101: What Is "Value"?. https://www.rff.org/publications/explainers/what-is-value/ -(2021, September 3rd access date)
• DEVELOP national program .(2020 Fall). Tempe Urban Development II. https://develop.larc.nasa.gov/2020/fall/TempeUrbanDevII.html (2021, September 3rd access date)
• DEVELOP national program .(2020 Summer). Fairfax County Urban Development. https://develop.larc.nasa.gov/2021/summer/FairfaxCountyUrbanDev.html (2021, September 3rd access date)

We are an international team of enthusiasts that registered 12 hours before the registration deadline! Space Apps experience is a great chance to work together and get practice in a new field. NASA has great missions and brings new ideas and data to the world. We believe it is worth it to take part in events such as hackathons and work on a project.

After we had decided to take part in the competition and registered, we started to absorb all possible information. On October 2nd we’ve scheduled a kick-off meeting before the start of the main session. We’ve set a timetable of availability for each team member and according to it decided on our activity timeline and set KPIs.

We’ve set main goals for these 2 days:

1. To expand our horizons - new ideas, new challenges, new opportunities!
2. To take a risk at something new and potentially useful!
3. To have fun and enjoy the process!
4. And TO WIN, of course!

Lessons learned:

1. Importance of double checking. You never know when you have missed something important or have a new piece of information change your entire outlook of the project (another way of saying you will have your scope change about 5 times).
2. Planning is 90% of success - have everything done in time.
3. Combining different methods you can create something new. Brainstorming + research gave us a lot of ideas in a short amount of time.
4. While discussing specific topics, with team members having different backgrounds, additional clarification was necessary for everyone to see the big picture. This also enabled us to have different approaches with regards to the same information.
5. Re-evaluation and additional sessions are important to ensure that all team members are on the same page.
6. Waking up on Saturday and Sunday’s early mornings gives a lot of motivation and energy for the rest of the day, even though your body might disagree. We’ve solved that issue with a tanker of coffee and a small bar of chocolate, so no worries!
7. Working long hours made team members less productive. Breaks between sessions and coffee breaks were important to maintain productivity. We still need to sleep, after all.

Resources:

• Counts, L. (2019, May 28th).How hedge funds use satellite images to beat Wall Street—and Main Street. https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/how-hedge-funds-use-satellite-images-to-beat-wall-street-and-main-street/ -(2021, September 3rd access date)
• Katona. Z, Painter.M, Patatoukas. P, Zeng,J (2018, July 30). On the Capital Market Consequences of Alternative Data: Evidence from Outer Space. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3222741 -(2021, September 3rd access date)
• U.S Energy Administration Information Administration. Table 9.8 Average Retail Prices of Electricity. https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T09.08#/?f=M&start=200604&end=202106&charted=0-1-2-3-4 -(2021, September 3rd access date)
• Partnoy, F. (2019, May). Stock Picks From Space. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/stock-value-satellite-images-investing/586009/ -(2021, September 3rd access date)
• Maricopa County Public Health. Heat-Associated Deaths in Maricopa County, AZ Final Report for 2020. https://www.maricopa.gov/ArchiveCenter/ViewFile/Item/5240 -(2021, September 3rd access date)
• Earth Observing System (2020, October). World Space Week: Satellites Improve Life. https://eos.com/blog/world-space-week-satellites-improve-life/ -(2021, September 3rd access date)

Tools:

• Google Slide for presentation;
• https://app.diagrams.net/ - to visualize and generate diagrams;

#urbanization #heatmap #livability #opportunity #alternativedata

This project has been submitted for consideration during the Judging process.